4.5 Why quantum probabilities are notLewisian
chances
We can now begin to see why quantum probabilities are not simply chances, as Lewis describes them. Section 5.1 will show how this also helps reconcile quantum theory’s violation of Bell inequalities with a physically motivated locality requirement.
Consider the following space-time diagram (in the laboratory frame), in which the diagonal lines mark boundaries of the causal past or future of the space-like separated eventsM
A,M
B at whichL
,R
respectively interact appropriately with a polarization detector and its environment:
INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE
Suppose one asks: What is the probability att
1 that Alice’s detector will recordL
with polarizationa
? Since all agree that the quantum state of the pair att
1 is |Φ+, , the answer ½ follows uniquely by theBorn
rule. Assume for the moment thata=b
, and consider this question: What is the probability att
2 that Alice’s detector will recordL
with polarizationa
? Applying the Born rule to her quantum state forL
att
2, Alice will give the same answer as before, namely ½. Bob will apply theBorn
rule tohis
quantum state forL
att
2and give the different answer 1. If quantum probabilities obey Lewis’s Principal Principle that he takes to capture all we know about chance, then at least one of these answers must be wrong, since that principle presupposes that, while the chance of an event may change as time passes, it is uniquely defined at any given time. But just as quantum state ascriptions are relational, so also areBorn
probabilities. Relative to Alice’s agent situation the probability is ½, relative to Bob’s agent situation the probability is 1. Neither probability is subjective, but both are correct. Each is authoritative for any agent that happens to be in the relevant agent situation, and accepting that this is so is a requirement on any agent that accepts quantum theory, whatever the actual situation of that agent.
Notice that adapting the framework ofLewisian
chance to relativistic space-time structure by allowing the chance of an event to depend not on some absolute time but rather on the time in any reference frame will noteffect
a reconciliation between apparently conflicting quantum probabilities Alice and Bob should assign to the same event here. For Bob in his reference frame, there will be a time interval afterM
B and beforeM
A during which he should assign probability 1 to Alice’s recording polarizationa
on photonL
. But this probability assignment could play no role in the decision-making of any agent at rest in Bob’s reference frame but within the back light-cone ofM
A, since the outcome of Bob’s measurement lies outside her back light-cone and should be counted by Lewis as inadmissible information for her (assuming no superluminal signaling): the objective probability for her remains ½, as specified by the Born rule applied to her quantum state. Therelativization
of chance to an arbitrary foliation by space-like Cauchy surfaces would face essentially the same objection: the value of the chance at some point on a Cauchy surface would be irrelevant to the decision-making of an agent at that point. One could try to understand quantum probabilities asLewisian
chances of an event by specifying them only on space-likehypersurfaces
restricted to the causal past of that event - the closure of the event’s back light-cone. But this proves problematic for a different reason. To take the value of the chance of an outcome ofM
A on a space-likehypersurface
within the back light-cone ofM
A to be given by Alice’s Born probabilities is to ignore the relevant information provided by the record of Bob’s measurement that is available to Bob att
2: On the other hand taking the value of this chance to be given by Bob’s Born probabilities both makes it arbitrary on which space-likehypersurface
withinM
A’s causal past they change and raises the specter of non-local action.
The relational nature of quantum state ascriptions and the consequence that Born probabilities are not simply time-relativized
Lewisian
chances may be brought home even more forcefully by examining an experiment first proposed by Peres ([2000]): a version of the experiment has recently been successfully performed. Since the experiment combines two independently interesting quantum phenomena, I begin by discussing the first - entanglement swapping - before introducing the second - delayed choice.
Two agents, Alice and Bob, simultaneously but independently prepare pairs of polarization-entangled photons in (universally agreed) quantum state |Ψ
−, = 1/√2( |
HV
, − |VH
, ): call Alice’s photons 1,2 and Bob’s 3,4. Alice measures the polarization of photon 1 along axisa
, while Bob measures the polarization of photon 4 along axisb
. Photons 2 and 3 are passed through optical fiber delays before each is incident on a switchable Bell-state analyzer incorporating a beam splitter, as indicated in the accompanying space-time sketch. A third agent, Victor, then measures the polarization along axisH
of any photons emerging to the left of the beam splitter, and the polarization along axisH
of any photons emerging to the right of the beam splitter. After allowing for the delay, careful timing permits recording of fourfold coincidence counts from detection of all four photons from two pairs simultaneously prepared by Alice and Bob.
INSERT FIGURE 2 HERE
Consider any such four-fold detection. The initial quantum state has the form of a product of two EPR states |Ψ
−, 12|Ψ
−, 34. This may be expanded in terms of the four Bell states
|Ψ
−, = 1/√2( |
HV
, − |VH
, )
|Ψ
+, = 1/√2( |
HV
, + |VH
, )
|Φ−, = 1/√2( |
HH
, − |VV
, )
|Φ+, = 1/√2( |
HH
, + |VV
, )
as
follows
|Ψ
−, 12|Ψ
−, 34 = 1/2(|Ψ
+, 14|Ψ
+, 23 − |Ψ
−, 14|Ψ
−, 23 − |Φ+, 14|Φ+, 23 + |Φ−, 14|Φ−, 23) (5)
Analysis of the actual experimental setup shows that cases (i
) in which Victor records one photon as detected to each side of the beam splitter (with the same polarization) have non-zero Born probability only from the fourth term in (5), while cases (ii
) in which Victor records both photons as detected to the same side of the beam splitter (with opposite polarizations) have non zero Born probability only from the third term in (5).
What polarization quantum state should Victor ascribe to a pair 1+4? In a case (i
) he should ascribe the corresponding 1+4 pair the quantum state |Φ−, 14, while in a case (ii
) he should ascribe the corresponding pair 1+4 the state |Φ+, 14. In either case, Victor should ascribe an entangled state to systems that have never interacted, directly or indirectly. Moreover, in either case Victor ascribes a quantum state to a pair of systemsafter
each system has been detected and no longer has any independent existence. The function of such quantum state ascriptions is perfectly standard. By inserting the relevant quantum state into the Born rule, any agent in Victor’s situation can adjust its expectations concerning matters of which it is currently ignorant, namely what is recorded by Alice and Bob’s detectors. Such expectations can be (and in the actual experiment were) compared to Alice and Bob’s records in many cases of type (i
) and many cases of type (ii
). Those records returned statistics in conformity to theBorn
rule and in violation of Bell inequalities (as the polarization axesa
,b
were suitably varied). What this experiment illustrates in a striking way is that an agent may need to form expectations concerning events that have already happened although his physical situation renders him inevitably ignorant of their outcomes. Until physical interactions have suitably correlated Victor’s records with the records of Alice and Bob’s detectors and their environment, the objective Born probabilities he derives from the quantum state for his agent situation remain his most reliable guide to belief about their records.
There is a further feature of this experiment that involves delayed choice. Clearly, if the beam splitter were not present there would be no swapping of entanglement: 1+2 would remain entangled, as would 3+4, but there would be no entanglement across these pairs. The experiment is therefore designed to allow a “decision”, effectively as to whether or not to introduce the beam splitter, to be postponed untilafter
photons 1 and 4 have been detected. (In the actual experiment, implementing the “decision” was a little more complex, and was carried out by a quantum random number generator rather than any agent, human or otherwise.) With this additional feature, whether an agent in Victor’s situation ascribes an entangled or a separable state to photons 1 and 4 depends on events that occur after these photons have been detected. The delayed-choice entanglement-swapping experiment reinforces the lesson that quantum states are neither descriptions nor representations of physical reality. In particular, it undermines the idea that ascribing an entangled state to quantum systems is a way of representing some new, non-classical, physical relation between them. To hold onto that idea in the context of this experiment would require one to maintain not only thatwhich
entanglement relation obtains between a pair of photons at some time, but also whetherany
such relation then obtains between them, depends on what happens to other independent systems later, after the pair has been absorbed into the environment.
Note also that theBorn
probabilities flowing from these assignments of quantum states cannot here be understood as chances that conform to Lewis’s Principal Principle. That principle is supposed to explicate the role of chance in decision-making at a time by saying how an agent should base his credence of an event on the event’s chance at that time. We saw earlier that to be guided by quantum theory in his decision-making, an agent may need to take account of information to which he is privy but that must remain inaccessible to other agents at that time. We now see a situation in which quantum theory supplies objective probabilities concerning a pair of events to no agent until after those events have occurred. Clearly these probabilities cannot guide any agent in formingcredences
about these events ahead of time. But they can still be useful to a decision-maker like Victor who is kept in ignorance of Alice and Bob’s results.
Such ignorance would be irremediable in a modified scenario where the choice andVictor’s measurements
arespace-like
separated from Alice’s and Bob’s measurements (assuming no-superluminal signaling). In Lewis’s terminology, that scenario would render information about Alice’s and Bob’s results inadmissible for Victor for a whileafter
they had already occurred in his reference frame. Even thought they are objective,Born
probabilities are indexed not to a time, but to the physical situation of a potential agent relative to the events they concern. These probabilities sometimes, but not always, depend on the temporal aspect of this relation. But whether or not they do, they may depend also on further physical aspects.