Alhassanain(p) Network for Heritage and Islamic Thought

World Futures Studies Federation

Futures Studies in the European Ex-Socialist Countries

Edited by

Erzsébet Nováky, Viorica Ramba Varga, Mária Kalas Kőszegi

Futures Studies Centre

Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration

Budapest, 2001

Futures Studies in the European Ex-Socialist Countries

These are:

Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the USSR/Russia and Yugoslavia

Edited by

Erzsébet Nováky, Viorica Ramba Varga, Mária Kalas Kőszegi

Futures Studies Centre

Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration

Budapest, 2001

Written by

Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Mária Kalas Kőszegi, Andrzej Karpinski, Mircea Malitza, Eleonora Masini, Radmila Nakarada, Erzsébet Nováky, Frantisek Petrasek, Viorica Ramba Varga, Karlheinz Steinmüller, Erik Terk, Alexander Tomov, Stefan Zajac

Edited by

Erzsébet Nováky, Viorica Ramba Varga, Mária Kalas Kőszegi

© Erzsébet Nováky, Viorica Ramba Varga, Mária Kalas Kőszegi, 2001

ISBN 963 503 263 3

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Authors, Editors and Publisher.

Publisher:

Futures Studies Centre

Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION.. 6

PREFACE.. 8

FUTURES STUDIES AND THE WFSF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE MAINLY IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1970 AND 1990. 8

PART ONE: COUNTRY STUDIES. 11

FUTURES STUDIES IN BULGARIA   12

1. PAST AND PRESENT OF FUTURES STUDIES IN BULGARIA.. 12

2. Future of the futures research programmes in Bulgaria. 13

2.1. In the economic sphere. 16

2.2. In the health care sphere. 16

2.3. In the educational sphere. 16

2.4. In the social sphere. 16

2.5. In the technology sphere. 17

2.6. In the environment 17

FUTURES STUDIES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC   18

1. Some features of local futures studies ideology. 18

2. Last fifty years of the futures studies. 19

3. Challenges to futures studies. 22

References. 23

FUTURES STUDIES IN ESTONIA.. 25

1. Institutes and futures research activities in years 1960-1990. 25

2. Institutes and futures research activities after 1990. 26

3. The questions of Today. 27

FROM ANTICIPATIONS OF A BRIGHT FUTURE TO DISSOLUTION   28

1. Introduction. 28

2. Following the Soviet model 28

3. The race to the year 2000. 28

4. Prognostics. 29

5. Confronted with the Limits to Growth. 30

6. In the years of decline. 30

7. The aftermath. 30

REFERENCES. 31

FUTURES STUDIES IN HUNGARY   32

1. The beginnings and organisational/institutional background of futures studies in Hungary  32

2. Historical periods of futures studies in Hungary. 34

3. Scientific research. 34

3.1. The period of proof and acceptance. 35

3.2. The period of busy labour 36

3.3. The period of diversification. 37

3.4. Scientific results displayed. 39

4. University-level teaching. 40

4.1. The period of proof and acceptance. 40

4.2. The period of busy labour 40

4.3. The period of diversification. 41

5. International relations. 41

5.1. The period of proof and acceptance. 41

5.2. The period of busy labour 42

5.3. The period of diversification. 42

6. Conclusions for the future. 43

Bibliography - Comprehensive books on futures studies written by Hungarian authors, 1970-2001   44

30 YEARS OF FUTURES STUDIES IN POLAND: Experiences and Conclusions  47

1. From classic prognoses to strategic studies on the future. 47

2. Polish approach to some methodological problems. 49

3. Scale of risks and threats to the adopted long-term strategy. 52

4. Government long-term strategies - similarities and differences. 53

5. Substantial elements of the accomplishments of the Polish practice. 54

6. CONCLUSIONS FOR THE FUTURE.. 55

FORESIGHT STUDIES IN ROMANIA   57

1. Brief preliminaries. 57

2. The present situation. 57

2.1. The Black Sea University Foundation (BSUF) 57

2.2. The UNESCO Prospective Chair 58

2.3. Institute for Economic Forecasting. 59

2.4. Commission of Prospective Studies of the Romanian Academy. 60

3. Conclusions. 61

FUTURES STUDIES IN SLOVAKIA   62

1. Futures studies before 1989. 62

2. Futures studies in the 1990s. 64

3. Conference at Smolenice 1998. 66

4. CONCLUSIONS. 66

REFERENCES. 67

FUTURES STUDIES IN THE USSR (1966-1991) AND IN RUSSIA (1991-1999) 68

1. Forecasting Boom in the USSR of 60s. 68

2. Quasi-forecasting in 70s - 80s. 70

3. Six case studies - one example of hundreds. 71

4. Non-government forecasting organisation. 72

5. Forecasting and decision-making. 73

6. Three case studies of 90s. 74

7. Towards Russian Futures Studies Academy. 75

8. Participation in International Futurists Associations. 76

9. Teaching young futurists. 77

FUTURES STUDIES IN YUGOSLAVIA   79

PART TWO: SYNTHESIS. 81

THE COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE BASED ON THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONNAIRE   82

1. Introductory words. 82

2. Similarities and differences among the countries considered. 82

3. Final considerations. 93

EPILOGUE INSTEAD OF CONCLUSIONS  94

ANNEX: THE QUESTIONNAIRE.. 98

Endnotes. 99

INTRODUCTION

ERZSÉBET NOVÁKY, VIORICA RAMBA VARGA, MÁRIA KALAS KŐSZEGI

Being on the eve of the 21st century we came to the conclusion it is time to summarize the information on futures studies in our East and Central European ex socialist countries between 1960 and 2000 and make them known far and wide. From a historical perspective we intended to give a comprehensive and comparative picture about these activities in the individual countries.

This idea was inspired and guided by an important consideration. The researchers who have been active since the sixties have accumulated enormous experience, which is not yet compiled for internationally consumption for the future. It is our common interest today, that this accumulated knowledge not be allowed to disappear. Therefore, our fundamental goal was: to provide a stage for the members of the previous generation to present their activities and results to convey their store of learning to the next and the forthcoming generations and to help them amid their different but not less difficult circumstances.

Viorica Ramba Varga , from Bucharest, as her idea, worked out a Questionnaire for having systematized information on futures studies from this region. Her conception met with the future-oriented thinking and commitment of the two Hungarian futurists -Erzsébet Nováky andMária Kalas Kőszegi - we three (members of the World Futures Studies Federation) immediately set up an Editorial Board in Budapest. We finalized the Questionnaire and worked out the concept and the structure of a book.

To reach our aims we turned to the well-known and experienced futurists and scientific committees/societies of the countries in this region to participate in this historical work. Appreciating their known valuable futures studies activities we had every hope to be partners in this venture. Our intention was to have information from all of the European ex socialist countries. At the end we succeeded in collecting country studies from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the USSR/Russia and Yugoslavia.

Here we have to express our thanks for the valuable contributions of everyone ready to send us their materials in time. Special thanks for their enthusiastic participation.

It is a great honour for us thatEleonora Masini , founding member and president of the World Futures Studies Federation, identified immediately with the importance of our concept. She has been familiar with and interested in the futures studies activities all over the world including our countries for a long time so her great attention and empathy concerning this venture was just natural.

We hope to find among the readers of this book not only those who have been active in the field of futures studies in the past but everyone who is interested in our futures, who feels responsibility for it and who forms our common future, and is willing to deal with them on a scientific level. We also hope this group is a growing one, including people of different ages, mainly the youth.

The book consists of two main parts: i.e. country studies and the synthesis of the answers given to the Questionnaires. They covered the period of 1960-2000, divided into two parts, 1960-1990 and 1990-2000. The borderline was the fall of the Soviet Union and the socialist system, when the transition period started. The country studies are published in their original form under the name of the author as independent chapters. The Editorial Board madeonly some slight editorial corrections . The answers to the Questionnaire gave a good possibility to have a comprehensive and comparative picture about the futures studies activities and scientific results of the futurists in the given countries.

In carrying out this venture successfullyMária Kalas Kőszegi andErzsébet Nováky shouldered the work of searching for the responsible authors from the countries, keeping the contact with the foreign partners, and the editorial work of the book. The majority of the staff of the Futures Studies Centre at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration led byErzsébet Nováky also participated in the work. From them, however, we have to raise the name ofÉva Hideg who provided great help in finalizing the Questionnaire. The technical infrastructure was aided by this Centre.

The encouragement of UNESCO and the WFSF is also highly appreciated.

Finally, we must mention something else. It gave us a special happiness to be able to work together with widely known famous colleagues in the field of futures studies from different countries. That possibility helped us to bring out such a book, made by everyone, authors and editors, voluntarily, without any financial or other material compensation. This fact made us become real partners in this scientific field.

And now, as a conclusion one can see how people can work together, even internationally - neglecting any material interest in it. … Can this be the unselfish future already?

PREFACE

FUTURES STUDIES AND THE WFSF IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE MAINLY IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1970 AND 1990

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

What was called the Second World Conference in Future Research (at that time this was the name of the discipline) took place in Bucharest in September 1972. It was the first time that scholars and other people interested in futures studies from Western and Central and Eastern Europe had met to discuss and exchange views. I was present at the conference organised by Prof.Hidetoshi Kato in Kyoto in 1970 but not at the very first one in Oslo in 1968 whenJohan Galtung andRobert Jungk had invited people such asJohn McHale from the United States,Hidetoshi Kato from Japan,Igor Bestuzhev-Lada from the USSR and others from Poland. In this Oslo meeting, Mankind 2000,Galtung andJungk started the discussion of a possible world federation.

The Soviet Union was present at all WFSF meetings with the participation ofBestuzhev-Lada, who was able to give the information on the studies undertaken.Lada ’s personal work was on methods and the use of social indicators in futures studies as well as on terminology on which I also worked with him. He certainly kept futures studies alive in the USSR and especially in the Russian Republic and published extensively. I would also like to recallGennady Dobrov , a member of the WFSF till his death, who was for a long time at IIASA in Austria, and in Kiev organized a school for futures studies which I personally visited.

Bucharest was a wonderful experience with people from the Romanian group such asMircea Malitza, Mihai Botez, Pavel Apostol, Viorica Varga and many others actively present. We must think of the historical moment and what that meant. The group in Romania later took the name International Center of Methodology for Future and Development Studies. The Romanian school was mainly made up of mathematicians, because in that period Romania had an important school in this discipline and was interested in models. In my understanding, the most important present activity is that of Prof.Mircea Malitza, the founder of the University of the Black Sea. With his knowledge as a mathematician, but also as a great humanist, in a different historical moment and a different manner, he is carrying on the work initiated thirty years ago. I believe thatAna Maria Sandi , also a mathematician, is still working in the area of development and future thinking, as well as the very open-minded social scientistViorica Ramba Varga, who has been present since the very beginning.

In 1972 Poland was strongly represented by Poland 2000, which was the group within the Polish Academy of Warsaw. It was specially interested in cultural issues, whether in terms of cultural artefacts, as the theatre, or in  anthropologically understood culture in Europe. People from the excellent school of sociology of Poland were also part of the group, includingJan Strelecki , a hero of the resistance against the German invasion and an excellent and famous sociologist, who died in mysterious circumstances in 1981,Andrzej Sicinski, briefly Minister of Culture during the first government after the change,Jan Danecki andDanuta Markowska . This group was extremely active in the 80s during the difficult period of change.

In my view, two aspects of the 1972 Conference were of particular importance: the decision to found a World Federation of Futures Studies (the WFSF came into being in 1973) and the real interest in futures studies expressed by Eastern European countries despite the limitations of the historical period. I would like to stress the important role played by futures studies and the WFSF in a very difficult time for these countries, offering whatMilos Zeman of Czechoslovakia later referred to as a “window on the outside world”. This is no small role, if viewed in a historical perspective. Despite its many problems, Czechoslovakia managed to keep the interest in futures studies alive, first withRadovan Richta , the author of the famous book “Civilization on the Crossroads” (now impossible to find) and later thanks to the commitment of many others, includingMilos Zeman , at present a high-ranking political leader.

The third WFSF World Conference was held in Rome (1973). Again there were many scholars from Eastern Europe with Hungary showing the extent to which interest in futures studies had developed under the leadership of Prof.Géza Kovács and with the presence within the Futures Research Committee at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences of people of the calibre ofMaria Kalas Kőszegi and Erzsébet Gidai . The group in Hungary was mainly oriented towards economic development and has therefore been able to play an important role in recent decades and indeed through the entire historical period. Much was also due to the charismatic figure of Prof.József Bognár , a great economist and member of the Club of Rome.

The very important school of Hungary was present at the Rome conference but became more visible and active in the following years. Therefore the European Regional Experts Meeting on “Technology of Future and its Social Implication” was organised in Budapest in 1987 and three years later the XI World Conference of the WFSF under the title “Linking Present Decisions to Long-Range Visions” was also successfully organised there at the time of the beginning of the transition period in the European socialist countries.

Yugoslavia did not have a group as such, but many people took an interest and worked in futures studies.Mihailo Markovich was one; for a longer time and at great personal price,Radmila Nakarada was another. The School of Philosophy and Sociology was mostly involved and supportedJohan Galtung’ s interesting idea to create an International University Center (IUC) in Dubrovnik in 1975. Many cutting edge disciplines were taught there since its foundation in 1975, with the initial support of the United Nations University and the contribution in terms of faculty and students of over one hundred universities from all over the world. Both faculty and students came from Western and Eastern European countries; among the courses, there was also a Futures Studies course, the first didactic activity of the WFSF aimed at building the next generation of futures thinkers. The University was destroyed in 1991 during the war. Although it has been rebuilt, it no longer has a Futures Studies course as such in Dubrovnik, and the Futures Studies Department of the Budapest University of Economic Sciences - headed byErzsébet Nováky - has continued the tradition since 1999.

Courses such as Mediterranean Studies, Women Studies andJurgen Habermas philosophy and sociology were held in Dubrovnik interacting with the other courses including futures studies courses. The IUC was an example of international academic freedom rarely found anywhere in the world. In Dubrovnik also the Fourth World Conference in Futures Studies (in 1975) was held with many participants from different countries with limited but sufficient support from UNESCO. The amount of its support would today be considered very low but the conference took place because people wanted to be there and paid their own expenses with dedication and sacrifice.

To the best of my knowledge and information in all European ex socialist countries despite the periods survived, sometimes amid extremely difficult circumstances futures studies and research are again revived in different forms, places and institutions thanks to those new generations who had a possibility to work together with the founders of futures studies in different countries and who are still lucky to pass on their knowledge and experience to the youngest generation. To our greatest satisfaction these young people are deeply interested in their futures and more than one of them have become experts of internationally renown in this field.

I would like to conclude for my Western colleagues by saying that, from my own experience as a member of those engaged in the efforts of these years withJohan Galtung ,Mahdi Elmandjra andRobert Jungk , I know that, despite the difficult times, people continued to hold meetings and carry on research with great courage and in great personal danger. They did so because they believed in the advent of different and alternative futures to the ones they were experiencing. Has this been so and what responsibility do we, Western futures thinkers, have from now on?

PART ONE: COUNTRY STUDIES

Bulgaria

The Czech Republic

Estonia

The German Democratic Republic

Hungary

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

The USSR/Russia

Yugoslavia