Alhassanain(p) Network for Heritage and Islamic Thought

FORESIGHT STUDIES IN ROMANIA

Mircea Malitza

1. Brief preliminaries

Prospective concerns became manifest in Romania at the end of the sixties and was maintained for some ten years. In 1968 theChronicle of the Year 2000 first appeared as a press serial and was published as a volume in 1969. In 1973, the futures studies international community met in Bucharest, creating today’s WFSF. At the beginning of the 70s the Prospective Commission of the Romanian Academy was set up, which is working even today. In a series under the heading ofGlobal Issues of the Mankind , the Commission has published 15 volumes. In the same period was created the International Center for Futures Studies Methodology withMihai Botez (author of the first Handbook of Prospective Techniques in Romania, and later a known dissident of the regime) as its director. Today, the members of the group are distinguished researchers (World Bank, city planning, science and technology, management, etc.). The Bucharest group maintained close relationships with their colleagues in other countries:Bertrand de Jouvenel, Johan Galtung, Eleonora Masini, Robert Jungk , who often visited them. The problem they faced at home was that of accepting “several possible futures” (de Jouvenel ) in contradiction to the uniqueness of aim as according to State socialist planning. In 1977, the Center was expulsed from its headquarters. Meanwhile, it had succeeded to participate in the world perspective movement and in international projects such as that of the Development’s Indicators at the UN University.

2. The present situation

After the 1989 Revolution, prospective preoccupations were gradually resumed, and at the end of the 90s they became of topical interest. A summary selective presentation must leave aside a big number of Prospective Clubs that work in cities (Galati , etc.), within large professional associations (AGIR) or in schools and universities. I shall only mention the Black Sea University Foundation, the UNESCO Prospective Chair of the Cluj University, the Institute of Economic Forecasting and the Romanian Academy’s Commission for Prospective Studies. I shall mention each one’s present activities and projects for the future.

2.1. The Black Sea University Foundation (BSUF)

This was created in 1993. Ever since, the BSUF has organized 50 post-university international courses annually that enjoyed each year 1,000 participants (from more than 40 countries). Among the themes of the courses a leading place was held by Prospective (present stage, methods) and prospective studies in various domains. Issues of special interest to our region and to the societies in transition were approached and treated in the light of the prospective (future of the professions, of the universities, of the cities, etc. One general course on Prospective was held byHugues de Jouvenel of Futuribles, Paris. Among the study centers set up by the Foundation, one that distinguished itself is the National Center for Sustainable Development. In collaboration with the Romanian Academy and with the support of the UNDP, it developed the firstStrategy for Sustainable Development of Romania, which was supported by Trade Unions and the Employers associations and endorsed by the Cabinet in 1999. The Black Sea University Foundation resumed and developed its ties with UNESCO’s prospective thinking centers, the Club of Rome, the WFSF, the WFS etc. It also initiated the editing of a quarterly review,Millennium III . Among the members of the board areRicardo Diez-Hochleitner, Sergei Kapitza, Lawrence Klein andIlya Prigogine (Nobel Prize laureates),Federico Mayor, Jean d’Ormesson, Ernst Ulrich Weizsäcker, Roseann Runte andPentti Malaska . Furthermore, the Foundation established ties with the Forward Studies Unit of the EU and consequentlyScenarios Europe 2010 was translated into Romanian under the aegis ofMillennium III . was published in April 2000 in view of a large debate to which the authors of the Scenarios were invited to participate.

The Foundation’s main aim was to enhance the awareness about foresight in Romania and to stimulate the production of studies capable of supporting the country’s sustainable development. The Foundation shall play host to WFSF’s World Conference in 2001.

BSUF also devotes its activities to training. Thus, the most recent initiative based on the experience of theConflict Prevention Center that works under the aegis of the Foundation was the creation of theFive-Seas Academy (the five seas being the ones that surround the South-East of Europe). Also, it is worth mentioning that out of the eleven member countries of BSEC governmental organization, six are Balkan ones. The area of the Center’s concerns is that of the Black Sea and Balkan South-East. In addition, on the Foundation’s initiative the Black Sea Universities Network, linking more than 80 universities, was set up.

The Black Sea University Foundation

Blvd. Primaverii 50, Sector 1, Bucharest, Romania

Tel./Fax: 0040-1-222-4118 & 0040-1-222-7001, E- mail: bseau@rnc.ro

 or

The Black Sea University Foundation, Casa Academiei

Calea 13 Septembrie, Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania

Tel./Fax: 0040-1-411-2601

2.2. The UNESCO Prospective Chair

Babes-Bolyai University and Black Sea University Foundation of Romania have set up since October 1999 a UNESCO Chair Program for education and research in “social prospective studies, integration of Central and East-European countries in the European Community, regional resource use and labour force employment, and education prospective”.

Chaired by Prof. Dr.Traian Rotariu , the Program aims to create a center of excellence in prospective studies and to establish a network of institutions involved in long-term futures studies in the Black Sea area and the developed countries.

The Chair was created following a proposal submitted by the BSUF and approved byFederico Mayor in 1997. Since 1999 it is hosted by the Cluj-Napoca University, which has a European Studies Department. During its two first years of existence the Chair had not met with a favourable environment at the Academy of Economic Studies from Bucharest where it had been initially located.

The Chair’s teaching staff consists of three professors, three lecturers, one reader, three assistants and one researcher. They have a management headquarters equipped with computers, printers and xerox copiers and a library of more than 100 volumes and 300 specialty reviews.

The Chair was represented at the XVI WFSF World Conference at Bacolod, the Philippines, 5-8 December 1999 by ProfessorTraian Rotariu , when it adhered to WFSF.

They started prospective research activities through the projects: “Romanian Teenagers and Axiologic Changes Associated to Globalization and Cultures” and “Romania’s Integration into the E.U. Attitudes, Expectations and Fears of the Population”.

Other activities planned for the year 2000 included:

Setting up a Social Statistics School (organized by the Chair for Prospective Studies in cooperation with the Sociology Chair and the Chair of Political Sciences, financed by the Foundation for an Open Society) for students of Social Sciences of the 3rd and 4th years, May 3-13, 2000. Learning of Methodological Elements of Prospective Research; Reading by ProfessorTony Stevenson , WFSF President, May 25, 2000; Round table on the theme of “Prospective: science, atavism or social engineering?” Participants: ProfessorTony Stevenson , the staff of the Chair, journalists, professors and researchers from Romania, May 24-25, 2000.

International Symposium “ South-East European Transition. The Challenge of Integration”, November 13-15, 2000.

The Program aims to develop researches in globalisation and the information society; population, education and social change; the consumption prospective; transformations in the production system and the political evolution of democracy in Romania, among others.

Including the following courses of Prospective in the curricula of Master Degree in Sociology: Prospective Demography, Methods and Techniques in Prospective Research “Mass Communication and Cultural Globalisation” October 2000.

Preparing issue number IV, 2000 of “Millennium III” quarterly.

Contact Person:

Professor Dr. Traian Rotariu

Universitatea “Babes-Bolyai”

Facultatea de Istorie si Filosofie, Catedra de Prospectiva

Str. Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Tel.: 0040-64-405-300/Ext.282

Fax: 0040-64-191-906

2.3. Institute for Economic Forecasting

The Institute for Economic Forecasting (IEF) was established in 1990, in order to facilitate policy oriented economic research into the transitional environment and the impact of EU integration process for the Romanian economy. Since then the Institute has become an active center in Romania and its analyses have played a major role in the decision making process at macroeconomic level, in recent years. Institutions such as the National Bank of Romania, branch ministries (Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Research and Technology, Department for European Integration), international organizations (UN, World Bank Mission in Romania), trade unions and entrepreneurs associations are among the domestic beneficiaries of its studies and analyses.

A leading dimension of IEF’s work is oriented towards the development of cooperation with regional (Central- and Eastern European CEE), European and world organizations and other institutions. From the very beginning, it established research contacts with academic and research institutions from the UK (LSE, LBS, Heriot-Watt University, Essex University, Leicester University, Imperial College, University of London), France (CEPREMAP, ROSES- University of Paris 1, GRATICE - University of Paris -XII), Austria (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Belgium (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Catholic University of Louvain), Germany (University of Göttingen), the Netherlands (Free University of Amsterdam), Poland (University of Warsaw, University of Gdansk), Hungary (Central European University, Economic University of Budapest, Institute for World Economy, Budapest), the Czech Republic (CERGE - Charles University), Bulgaria (Institute of Economics, Economic University Sofia), Slovenia (University of Ljubljana, Macroeconomic Institute), Israel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem and CINADCO), Canada (University of Toronto, Institute for Policy Analysis), USA (Harvard University, Stanford University, University of Michigan, University of Pennsylvania - WEFA Group), etc.

Now, to mention some of the particular achievements of the IEF:

The development of comprehensive macroeconomic models for the Romanian economy, in the light of future European Union integration. At present, three different macroeconomic models implemented by the Institute are the functional models calibrated for the present Romanian data and used for analysis and forecast activities (RMSM-WB Model, National Bank forecast, the base for scenarios within the Government Strategy for European Integration and Sustainable Growth, Non-Linear Macroeconomic Model).

Sector and specific studies on aspects of industrial development, reform and restructuring, developed jointly with the CEE and EU partners or together with other domestic institutions. Examples of such projects are: the National Program for Accession to the European Union (PHARE program - jointly with Adam Smith Institute London, Romanian Ministry of Finance); Competitiveness evaluation and industrial policies for reform (Ministry of Industry and Trade, ongoing project with Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies, a pilot study intended to be expanded into all other CEE countries).

Impact studies such as labour market analysis, trade and FDI structural evolution, fiscal and monetary policies. Examples of projects include: Labour market policy and sector employment re-allocation, A comparative study for transition economies, jointly implemented with the LSE (London School of Economics); The impact of indirect taxation on the demand of gasoline in Romania, jointly with the Ministry of Finance and the Adam Smith Institute; The Sustainability of Public Debt and Deficits - World Bank Program and CEROPE, etc.

The researchers of the Institute have published more than one hundred articles in international publications as well as contributions to well-established Romanian academic journals, the Institute’s bulletins, etc. Also, part of some of the Institute’s works were published as chapters in various books edited by prestigious publishing houses such as Kluwer, Springer Verlag, OECD, World Bank, etc.

Particular attention was paid to attracting young promising Romanian researchers and including them in specific training programs, often in top universities and institutions in the European Community and EEC countries, including Romania. Practically, all senior researchers of the Institute have benefited from long spells of training and skill improvement in the EU or candidate countries, in the form of fellowships, scholarships, summer schools of economics, academic bilateral exchanges.

The Institute has also received the visits of numerous senior and junior researchers from EU member countries or other EEC candidate countries, involved in fellowships, post-doctoral studies, participation in joint research workshops, seminars or in conferences organized by the Institute. Also, the Institute organized workshops, seminars and conferences with international participation.

Contact Person:

Professor Lucian-Liviu Albu

Academia Romana, Institutul de Prognoza Economica

Calea 13 Septembrie 13

Casa Economiei, et. 3, Sector 5, 76117 Bucharest, Romania

Tel.: 0040-1-410-3200/Ext. 3317 or 3306;

Fax: 0040-1-411-4916 or 0040-1-4103200/ext. 3306

E-mail: ipe@ipe.ro

http://www.securities.com/Romania/Macroenomic Analysis and Forecasts

Publications:Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasts and respectivelyEconomic Performance Evolution in Transitional Systems, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Internet Securities Inc., ISI Emerging Markets)

2.4. Commission of Prospective Studies of the Romanian Academy

The 25 members of the Commission, members of the Romanian Academy, are directors of research institutes and experts in the discipline of Prospective. The Commission collaborates with the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, the Governmental Center for Prognosis (moved at present with the Ministry of Finance) and other centers in the country. Its foreign ties are with the Forward Studies Unit of the EU in Brussels, Futuribles in Paris, the UNESCO Analysis and Prospective Center, World Futures Studies Federation in Australia, the Club of Rome and other similar national centers.

During its almost three decades of existence, it has published 15 volumes of studies under the heading “Global Issues of the Mankind”. The Commission was in the past years one of the initiators of such works asRomania 2020, Romania’s Strategy for Sustainable Future and collaborated in writing them and is at present committed in elaborating the development strategy for medium term in a European perspective by the Government’s group of experts. It is the initiator of the UNESCO Chair for Prospective at the University of Cluj-Napoca and has supported the Black Sea University’s program of prospective studies in close collaboration with BSU. Furthermore, the Commission was patron of the National Center for Sustainable Development and members of it are on the Board of the Center. The Commission is one of the patrons ofMillennium III , a quarterly published in English. It also has developed synergic ties with the other mentioned above centers.

Its aims are, among others, to stimulate and direct prospective studies in Romania and to elaborate studies on the future development of the Romanian society in the perspective of globalisation and European integration.

Its projects for the years 2000-2001 include the elaboration of a prospective study of education and work in the light of modularization of disciplines and a national symposium on the scientific and technological perspectives opened in Romania by the ICT revolution.

3. Conclusions

The slow rhythm of recovery of prospective studies in Romania is partly due to the heterogeneous political coalitions, which could not make up their mind upon some prospective strategies, which would have required, of course, the support of some foresight studies, but also because of the reservation of the ultra-liberal circles towards the prospective. The resort to developing politically independent research came from the area of the civil society, which, with the support of some international bodies, has produced such studies asRomania 2020 and theStrategy for Sustainable Development. The fact that they have worked together has helped the non-governmental organizations. But most particularly, it was the beginning of negotiations for EU access that was the decisive factor, which has determined the change in the attitude of authorities and their implication in such strategies as require prospective studies. One may state that in the spring of 2000 the elaboration of the medium-term strategy of Romania with the support of the EU has created a momentum in favour of such studies and brought them to a broad public attention. It is most significant that, together with the development of the strategy to which civil society is called to bring its contribution, there are ongoing talks about creating a permanent governmental body capable of guiding and monitoring long-term development.

The mentioned above bodies have found through their activity the encouraging potential of the civil society. They are to be found among the initiators of theRomanian Forum for European Integration that includes some 60 NGOs.

FUTURES STUDIES IN SLOVAKIA

Stefan Zajac

1. Futures studies before 1989

Futures studies in Slovakia[21] , as a part of the former Czechoslovakia, from its very beginning, were linked with economic planning. The term used in Czechoslovakia, was “prognostics”, which considered futures studies as the crucial process preceding the formation of a long-term socio-economic outlook. The foundations of socio-economic planning were laid according to the regularities of the advanced scientific-technological progress. Of course, forecasting and planning differed in levels of objectivity and complexity but they were necessarily tied. According to a dialectic-materialist outlook, the future was, in principle, stochastic and not simply a projection of the past. Therefore, planners and researchers in Czechoslovakia were concentrated on the analysis of scientific and technological processes and on their societal consequences (societal progress). This view of the role and objectives of forecasting was shared by the authorities responsible for planning until the end of the socialist regime in Slovakia, although for many years works on global social-economic forecasting were carried on in different research institutes, especially in the Slovak Academy of Sciences.

In the midst of the 1960s, another type of futures studies was launched by the team led by Radovan Richta from the Institute of Philosophy of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences. Their investigation resulted in the famous book “Civilisation on the Crossroads”, which characterised the post-second war period as the advent age of a scientific and technological revolution, generating a new technical and economic paradigms, as well as a new way of life. The analysis was so convincing that the idea of the scientific and technological revolution, of the transformation of science into a productive factor was generally accepted and even incorporated in official political speeches, and the acceleration of science and technology activities was considered as one of the priority tasks under socialism.

A new phase in the evolution of the futures studies in Slovakia began in the early eighties, namely in 1983, when the government decided to carry out a global social and economic forecast of Czechoslovakia, including Slovakia, up to the year 2010. In Slovakia, it was the SAS, specifically the Institute of Economics as co-ordinator, which was appointed to realise the project. The decision to entrust this task to an academic body followed from the idea of achieving a very global view of the possible ways of development of the socialist society in a longer period of time, where economic indicators and tendencies would be one of the development parameters, themselves influenced by the changing of many social, cultural and demographic factors. But also some political and governmental bodies were designed to be the major consultants, and receptors of the final and partial results of the projects, and were to be regularly informed on the course of investigations. This new type of forecasting, was considered to be part of the planning process as a whole.

The global social and economic forecast of Slovakia was published as a book in 1991 (Markus, J. et al.). Most important conclusions were subsumed under following six points (pp. 162 - 170):

1. At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, Slovakia again stands at a historical crossroads. Due to internal and external factors and contingencies, further progress forward is not possible without a deep social breakthrough, without a radical restructuring of the society, without its overall qualitative change or transformation. The essential trait not only of the day but of the entire decade and perhaps of decades is not continuity, but discontinuity. This involves a disruption of the evolutionary progression which began dangerously and irreversibly to increase downwards, towards stagnation and decline. In this situation, long-term prognosis has for task to outline the course of two qualitatively divergent developmental roads; they simultaneously form the framework, the boundaries of Slovakia’s possible future development.

To these two roads there correspond two scenarios of a comprehensive prognosis of the Slovakian Republic: their common feature is that both are in a certain sense discontinuous. They can be succinctly characterised as leading upwards and downwards; as a dynamism of ascent, naturally painful, complex, full of problems and antagonism, and as an apparently less risky tactic of small changes; this, however, will lead to an impossibility of maintaining what we may still assume to possess - a relative welfare and an appurtenance to advanced, or relatively advanced countries of the world. These were scenario of the desirable development and warning scenario.

2. One must realise that every change in the developmental line, enforced in the present revolutionary situation by objective circumstances, represents the exacting task of abandoning deeply rooted structures, mechanisms and methods of the so-called extensive stage of industrial development.

In this connection, it may concisely be formulated the “sum” total of the necessity of overcoming of industrialism, its motile logic, and the mechanism of its application in Slovak society. In case of Slovakia’s adherence to this logic, it is threatened with the same “fateful” lagging behind that had been characteristic of non-industrialised countries at the time of the first industrial revolution. At the same time, there is no doubt that this lagging, being newly formed, cannot be overcome in the same manner as had been the case with industrialisation (although this overcoming, in terms of its significance, is equivalent to industrialisation as regards the entire society). This mode of overcoming has one unpleasant trait at the present time, viz. that it conserves and deepens backwardness and logging behind.

3. New methods for resolving social problems, new modes and means of satisfying social needs will in their entirety create a new quality of the social reproduction process; with a certain measure simplification, this quality may be characterised as informatisation, intellectualisation and individualisation of that process under conditions of a growing internalisation (this last aspect will be dealt with presently).

4. In the future, all major global problems of the present and future world will incontestably find their reflection also in our national environment and will demand and initiative response outwards (e.g. in issues of war and peace, but also in the struggle with famine and other problems of the third world), and inwards. When speaking of global problems, mention in made - as being their fountainhead - of a crisis of culture and ethics, of a sensible weakening of the regulatory strength of universal values and norms, but also of an indispensable renewal of a “rule” of cultural, humane, ethical values - if we care that our world as such is to survive.

5. It must be stressed that the only way internal problems, particularly scientific-technical, economic, but also cultural ones, Slovakia can be resolved in future, is through a greater opening to the outside world. Every attempt to circumvent this mode of solving our developmental problems will - according to our prospective development until 2010 - lead to an overall dramatic loss of our - even now not too prominent - positions in the world, to a considerable relative lagging on an international scale. The need of internationalisation of our social reproduction process and our whole life emerges again, and in a new way at that, a need to learn to live in international and internationalising conditions and connections of development. A successful entry into these connections and conditions is possible uniquely in virtue of our own “face”, national identity, utilisation of our national temperament and national culture. Uniquely thus shall we succeed not to enter the international contest and collaboration empty-handed, or with cheap imitations: uniquely on the basic of our own originality, creative searching and finding (including also the element of a ready exploitation of what others have already found) we shall be interesting to the rest of the world, only thus we shall be able to combine within ourselves ability to compete and readiness to co-operate, willingness to give and to receive values. This penetration outward presupposes a struggle against our inner vices and pseudo-values.

6. What will be Slovakia’s further road through history? It may be said, speaking with a little modesty, that our searching and our contribution must start from our knowledge of the historical lane, often no more than a narrow path of our Slovakia through the complexness of the great world. We might speak here of our internal history, of history imprinted in us as of the foundation of our progress into the future and of the source of our contribution enriching others. We did not pass through history lightly or easily, we are not here chance, and our stay must not be in vain: we have our obligations towards ourselves and towards the world. This presumes broad and deep social activities for the protection and renewal of positive values, which we carry along from history, and a struggle for domesticating within the Slovak society of a readiness inwardly to change in the exacting contest and collaboration with the outside world.

As far as science in Slovakia is concerned, results were published as a book in 1990 (Gál, F. et al.). Forecasting activities in science were organised according to principle so called problem situation in science (opportunities and threats). This situation was understood in the scope of discrepancy among actual, anticipated and desirable state of some subject (e.g. scientific discipline, development process, quantity etc.), including conditions and ways of its solutions. Within the problem situation, panel experts (several hundreds of experts) were participating in seeking for scientific potential (personnel, funding, endowment, institution and so on) by means of which such a problem situation could be solved.

2. Futures studies in the 1990s

The 1989 changes interrupted temporarily the long-term forecasting exercises. New development issues arose. The problems of transition from one system to another drove into the background traditional forecasting concepts and forecasting activities themselves. A great number of specialists in this field, among the most competent, entered politics others found better remunerated jobs in private companies. The total number of active forecasters declined rapidly, along with interest in forecasting itself.

An interest in forecasting led in 1990 to the foundation of the Slovak Civic Society for Futurology, promoting the popularisation of main trends of futurologist thought in the world, but also of the results of forecast research in Slovakia. The Association is in contact with the World Federation for Futures Studies and with the Slovak Association of the Club of Rome and the Society for Sustainable Life. Its members take part in the world futurological project, The Millennium Project. Several papers presented at seminars were published in weeklies of large diffusion and in their own publications.

After a short period of time, at the beginning of the 1990s, the need for a long-term strategic view in the frame of which restructuring programs and economic policy could find a sounder base for strategic decision generated a revival of forecasting activities. In 1992, a project entitled “Slovakia - Steps towards European Community - Scenarios of Socio-Political Development, Economic Strategy and the Development of Higher Education and Technology up to the Year 2005”. The project was carried out within the framework of a larger international project: “Central and Eastern Europe up to the year 2000”. The project was supported by the DG XII of the European Commission, in co-operation with the Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna and Euroreg (Warsaw University) Warsaw, and co-ordinated (in Slovakia) by the Institute of Sociology of the SAS. The results of forecasting exercises were published in 1994 (Faltan, Ľ. et al., 1994), and in the European Union in 1995, respectively (Eastern, 1995).

It may be of great importance to note that the Slovak parliament approved an amendment of the so-called “Competence Act” in March 1995. According to this amendment the “Office for Strategy of Development of the Society, Science and Technology” was established. This office is the central body of the state administration for the “programming of strategy of development of the society, science and technology and for regional development”. This Office had prepared “Vision of the Slovak Republic development up to 2020” (see, R. Tóth, 1998) but it was not accepted by scientific community, at all. In 1999, the Office was abolished.

Against this background, in 1997, an important step was made when the Institute for Forecasting of the SAS succeeded in obtaining a three years grant for the construction of a global socio-economic forecast of Slovakia up to the year 2015. Project was entitled as “Structural Changes in the Decisive Spheres of Slovak Society in Long-term Perspective”. During three years of research, a very realistic view of the major tendencies generated by the transition process and the changes of the international context, was achieved and published in theoretical reviews, or submitted to official institutions (Economic Council of the Slovak Government).

On September 2000, Economic Council discussed a new proposal prepared by the Institute for Forecasting. This proposal was aimed at the vision of Slovakia up to 2015. However, Economic Council recommended, due to public procurement rules, that the Slovak government would advertise a call concerning project proposal for such a vision. This year, preparatory activities are underway.

Project scope and its methodology were inspired by foresight exercises carried out in the Czech Republic and Hungary (namely, Hungarian Academy of Sciences). Vision of Slovakia 2015 is understood as a two-dimensional development. On the one hand, there is an international context and its impacts for Slovakia, on the other hand, there are driving forces and outcomes of domestic context. Latest analyses suggest that major problems of Slovakia have emerged in the following fields:

1. Geopolitical situation of Slovakia,

2. National identity, traditions and societal changes,

3. Institutional system and the rule of law,

4. Socio-demographic structure and quality of life,

5. Development of education and knowledge-base,

6. Information technologies and competitiveness of economy,

7. Employment and structural changes in economy,

8. Environment,

9. Regional development.

The general aim of the project is to understand how recent and prospective changes have and will impact on different fields of the Slovak society. In particular, project has aim:

to assess the extent to which there has been shift in individual fields (mentioned above) during the transition process;

to identify key issues for Slovakia in respect of how it develops its policies for catching-up with the European Union;

to produce two scenarios of likely future changes in consequence of the future Slovakia accession.

One way how to disseminate the results and to include the user perspective already during the project will be the installation of a Steering Group consisting first of all of the representatives of the academic sector, government, non-governmental organisations, business interest groups, trade unions etc. This group should meet several times during the term of project. Furthermore, the vision results will be presented at national scientific conferences and in national (may be international) scientific journals. Main findings and conclusions of interim reports as well as that of the final report will be published in press articles.

3. Conference at Smolenice 1998

In late 1997, the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and its Scientific Council began to assess the past and the future of the Institute's scientific activities. The idea was to carry this out in the form of an international conference on “Forecasting in the Transition Society”. This conference was held at Smolenice castle (belonging to the Slovak Academy of Sciences), from November 20 - 21, 1998, with the participation of six experts from six countries in Central and Western Europe and nine participants from Slovakia.

The conference was to provide an international forum for the presentation and debate of current research and scholarship on the methodology of forecasting and practical knowledge of forecasting development in the transition society. The conference aimed at the current problems of forecasting methodology and the questions for the future in societies in transition (first of all, prospects for the catching-up of these societies with the EU nations), as seen by Slovak and foreign scientists and experts. Thus, providing a forum for presentation and debates, surveying research agenda and exchanging experiences in this field were of topical interest in various respects.

Bearing this in mind, and in order to capture the most salient approaches and analyses offered to explain the processes of transition, the conference was organised around four broad issues:

importance of forecasting for the process of transition,

forecasting of economic development,

forecasting of social development,

forecasting of regional development.

Participation at the conference was decidedly multi-disciplinary, encompassing the viewpoints of academics, policy-makers and bankers. Such multi-disciplinarity favoured the examination and broad discussion of the issues from a variety angles. Were the problems resolved or at least explained? The answer would probably be no. This could not really be expected considering the variety and complexity of conditions and circumstances involved.

On the other side, scientific results of the conference may be attributed to the following favourable circumstances:

the support the conference was provided by the Institute for Forecasting and its Scientific Council, under whose auspices it was conducted,

the extraordinarily quick and efficient financial support given the conference by the British Council in Bratislava, and

last, but not least, the interest and involvement shown by researchers, who participated not only in completing their contributions in a very short time, but also by the programme of the conference, which was very instructive, stimulating and interesting for all involved, both in their presentation and remarks and questions to the discussion.

4. CONCLUSIONS

The futures studies in Slovakia during the 1990s could be characterised as follows:

forecasting activities in Slovakia have not been regularly organised due to missing competencies,

however, experience with these activities suggests that government, universities, research institutes (first of all, those from the SAS) and scientific communities should all be encouraged to undertake, or to be involved in, forecasting activities,

such activities could develop a transparent process for decision-making on society, economy, environment allowing to shape the future of Slovakia.

REFERENCES

Eastern and Central Europe, 2000. Final Report. Studies 2. June 1994. European Commission, Luxembourg, 1995

Faltan, Ľ. et al.: Slovakia and its transformation in the early 1990s. Society - Economy - Science and Technology (in Slovak). Bratislava, Institute of Sociology, SAS, 1994

Forecasting in the Transition Society. International Conference Smolenice Castle November 20-21, 1998. Edited by Štefan Zajac. Bratislava, Institute for Forecasting SAS, 1998

Gál, F. et al.: Forecasting the Scientific Advancement (in Slovak). Bratislava, Veda, 1990

Markus, J. et al.: Slovakia at the turn of the third millennium (in Slovak). Bratislava, Veda, 1991

Sarmir, E.: Forecasting in Slovakia: Past and Prospects. In: [3]

Tóth, R.:Vision of the Slovak Republic development up to 2020 (in Slovak). Opening address at the conference “Stála Konferencia Slovenskej Inteligence Slovakia Plus”, held at Bratislava, June 25, 1998

Zajac, S. et al.: The long-term tendencies in selected areas of the Slovak society up to 2015 (in Slovak). Series: Forecasts 1. Bratislava, Institute for Forecasting, June 2000