Alhassanain(p) Network for Heritage and Islamic Thought

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON

STUDIES OF EVIDENCE SCIENCE

THOUGHTS ABOUT A SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE

DAVID A. SCHUM, PROFESSOR*

SCHOOL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING

SCHOOL OF LAW

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY

HONORARY PROFESSOR OF EVIDENCE SCIENCE

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON

[December 29, 2005]

* The author is most grateful for the support for this research that was provided by the Leverhulme Foundation and the Economic and Social Research Council to University College London.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

THOUGHTS ABOUT A SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE 3

1.0 A STANDPOINT IN THIS ACCOUNT OF A SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE 5

2.0 SOME BEGINNINGS 7

3.0 CONCEPTS OF EVIDENCE AND SCIENCE: THEIR EMERGENCE AND MUTATION 9

3.1 On the Concept of Evidence 9

3.2 On the Concept of Science and Its Methods 18

4.0 ELEMENTS OF A SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE 25

4.1 Classification of Evidence 26

4.2 Studies of the Properties of Evidence 38

4.2.1 On the Relevance of Evidence 39

4.2.2 On the Credibility of Evidence and Its Sources 46

Credibility Attributes: Tangible Evidence 48

Competence and Credibility Attributes: Testimonial Evidence 50

Credibility Attributes 52

4.2.3 The Inferential Force, Weight or Strength of Evidence 58

Bayes' Rule and the Force of Evidence 60

Evidential Support and Evidential Weight: Nonadditive Beliefs 62

Evidential Completeness and the Weight of Evidence in Baconian Probability 66

Verbal Assessments of the Force of Evidence: Fuzzy Probabilities 69

4.3 On the Uses of Evidence 70

4.3.1 On the Inferential Roles of Evidence 71

Supporting Hypothesis H 71

Negating Hypothesis H 72

4.3.2 Stories from Evidence and Numbers 73

4.4. Discovery in the Science of Evidence 77

4.4.1 Discoveries about Evidence 77

4.4.2 Evidence Science and the Discovery of New Evidence 78

Generating Evidence from Argument Construction 79

Evidence Marshaling and Discovery 79

Mathematics and the Discovery of Evidence 80

4.5 A Stronger Definition of a Science of Evidence 81

5.0 AN INTEGRATED SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE 83

5.1. The Science of Evidence: A Multidisciplinary Venture 83

5.2 The Science of Complexity: A Model 85

5.3 A Science of Evidence: Who Should Care? 86

6.0 IN CONCLUSION 87

NOTES 88